#The thaw rate and curve

Every batch that trades publishes d*, the Pyth price and the time on chain. That discount is the thaw rate: the market's own answer to how far below SPCXx the locked token is worth today.

#Annualized

Held to the conversion deadline, a discount d bought with t days left returns 1 ÷ (1 − d) − 1. Thaw annualizes it simply:

annualized = (1 ÷ (1 − d) − 1) × 365 ÷ days to the deadline

The site computes this with the same formula as the API, for every clear on the curve, for the discount under your cursor, and for the discount on the order ticket.

#The curve

Plot every clear's discount against the days left and you get the thaw curve, a term structure for the unlock. The explorer on the market page adds DEX snapshots for comparison: Jupiter and PreStocks prices taken off chain. They are context, not an oracle.

The faint lines behind the points hold the annualized rate constant. Each one bends toward zero at the deadline:

A clear sitting on the 60% line means buyers at that batch locked in 60% a year, if SPACEX converts at par by the deadline.

#Reading it with care

• One account holding both assets can trade with itself in a quiet batch. Treat the last clear as a trade, not an oracle, and weigh points by their matched size, which the explorer shows.
• Returns assume conversion at par before the deadline. See Risks.